The 48-team World Cup was supposed to democratize football's grandest stage, spreading opportunity across six confederations and giving minnows like Cape Verde their moment. It has done that. But the expanded bracket has also created something else entirely: a tournament where draw luck can be worth as much as a world-class striker.

With the group stage complete and the round of 32 set to begin, the contours of the knockout bracket reveal a stark asymmetry. The four teams most bookmakers consider favorites — France, Argentina, Brazil, and Spain — have been scattered across the draw in a way that ensures none will meet before the semifinals. Meanwhile, England and Germany find themselves in the same quarter, guaranteeing that at least one traditional power will exit before the final four.

The golden path

France, still ranked atop most power rankings despite an unconvincing group stage, have drawn what analysts are calling the tournament's softest corridor. Their round-of-32 opponent is Morocco, a formidable side but one France dispatched in the 2022 semifinals. A win there likely sets up a round-of-16 meeting with either Japan or South Korea — dangerous on their day, but hardly the gauntlet a defending champion might fear.

Argentina's path is similarly forgiving. Lionel Scaloni's side, even with concerns about squad depth, will not face a European heavyweight until at least the quarterfinals. Brazil, despite their own wobbles, have drawn into a bracket quarter that features no team ranked in the world's top ten.

The death quarter

Contrast that with the bracket's lower half, where England and Germany are on a collision course for the quarterfinals. Both sides have underperformed relative to expectations — England's group-stage displays were described as "uninspiring" even by their own supporters — but both retain the firepower to win any knockout match. One will be gone by the final eight.

The asymmetry is not new to World Cups, but the 48-team format amplifies it. More teams mean more rounds, and more rounds mean more opportunities for the draw to favor certain sides. A team that avoids a top-ten opponent until the semifinals has, statistically, a significantly higher probability of reaching the final than one forced to navigate two such matches.

Our take

Tournament football has always been a blend of quality and fortune, but this bracket makes the luck component unusually visible. France did not choose their path any more than England chose theirs, yet the difference in difficulty is measurable. If Les Bleus lift the trophy in New Jersey, it will be deserved — but it will also have been abetted by a bracket that asked less of them than it asked of their peers. The beautiful game remains beautiful; it is also, occasionally, a little unfair.