The Colorado Avalanche have spent the past four years building their identity around one immutable fact: when it matters most, Nathan MacKinnon elevates. Now, facing elimination against the Dallas Stars, they must confront the possibility that their generational center may not be available to save them.

MacKinnon left Game 4 with an undisclosed injury, and the Avalanche's already precarious position in this Western Conference semifinal has become something closer to dire. Colorado dropped the game and now trails the series, staring at what head coach Jared Bednar called a "big hill to climb" — the kind of understatement that coaches deploy when the situation is actually catastrophic.

The MacKinnon dependency problem

Colorado's roster construction has always been a bet on star power overwhelming depth concerns. MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen form one of hockey's most lethal top-end trios, but the supporting cast has thinned considerably since the 2022 Cup run. When MacKinnon is on the ice operating at full capacity, the gamble pays off handsomely. When he's not, the Avalanche look like a team with significant holes throughout the lineup.

The injury's severity remains unknown — teams guard this information like state secrets during the playoffs — but even a diminished MacKinnon creates problems. He's averaging over 23 minutes per game this postseason, and his absence or limitation forces Bednar to redistribute those minutes to players who simply cannot replicate his two-way impact.

Dallas smells blood

The Stars have been the Avalanche's postseason nemesis in recent years, and they entered this series with a clear blueprint: slow the game down, clog passing lanes, and force Colorado into the kind of grinding hockey that doesn't favor their skill-first approach. It's been working. Dallas's defensive structure has frustrated the Avalanche's transition game, and now they may not have to contend with the one player capable of breaking that structure through sheer individual brilliance.

Peter DeBoer's team has the depth and defensive discipline to close out a wounded opponent. They've done it before.

Our take

The Avalanche's window isn't closed, but it's certainly not as wide open as it appeared two years ago. MacKinnon at 30 remains an elite player, but the margin for error shrinks every season, and injuries to stars in elimination scenarios rarely end well. Colorado needs their best player healthy and dominant. Anything less, and this promising season ends in Dallas.