The Championships begin Monday with a void at the top of the men's draw and a question that hasn't felt this open since the Big Three began their long goodbye: who, exactly, is the favorite?

Jannik Sinner's withdrawal—a lingering hip injury that has dogged him since the clay season—removes the world No. 1 and reigning Australian Open champion from the equation. That leaves Novak Djokovic, now 39 and chasing a record-extending 25th major, as the sentimental pick, and Carlos Alcaraz, the defending champion, as the betting market's narrow choice. But the expert consensus, such as it is, fractures from there. Some see Daniil Medvedev's improved grass game as a genuine threat; others point to Alexander Zverev's Wimbledon jinx and wonder if 2026 is finally the year he breaks through. A handful of contrarians are whispering about Holger Rune.

The Djokovic question

Djokovic's body has been the story of his 2026 season. He withdrew from Roland Garros in the fourth round, citing knee discomfort, and his grass-court preparation has been minimal. Yet dismissing him at SW19 remains a fool's errand. He has won seven titles here, knows every blade, and possesses the institutional memory of a champion who has been counted out before. The question is whether his legs can sustain five sets against opponents who are, for the first time in his career, unambiguously faster.

Alcaraz's burden

Defending a Wimbledon title is a peculiar pressure. Alcaraz managed it brilliantly last year, dismantling Sinner in a four-set final that announced a new era. Without Sinner in the draw, the Spaniard is the clear top seed in everything but name—and the target on his back grows accordingly. His serve has improved, his net game is sharper, but his draw could pit him against Medvedev in the quarters and Djokovic in the semis. The path is not kind.

The women's draw: Świątek's grass puzzle

Iga Świątek remains the dominant force in women's tennis, but grass has never been her surface. She has never advanced past the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, and her heavy topspin game loses some of its suffocating effect on the low bounce. Aryna Sabalenka, by contrast, has looked increasingly comfortable on grass, and Coco Gauff's all-court game seems built for the surface. The experts lean toward a Sabalenka-Gauff final, though no one is ruling out Elena Rybakina, the 2022 champion, whose flat power translates beautifully to the lawns.

Our take

Sinner's absence is a loss for the tournament but a gift for the narrative. Wimbledon thrives on uncertainty, on the sense that the draw might break open in unexpected ways. This year offers that in abundance. Alcaraz is the sensible pick, but Djokovic in a final, chasing history at nearly 40, would be the story tennis craves. We'll take the field.